The greatest risk in 2025 is armed conflicts between countries, which could have devastating effects on both regional and global stability. The war in Ukraine, conflicts in the Middle East, and Africa illustrate how unpredictable the consequences can be for the economy, food security, and humanitarian efforts. Uncertainty in international politics and the limited effectiveness of multilateral mechanisms, such as the UN, only exacerbate this issue.
The impacts of climate change are becoming increasingly tangible: hurricanes, heatwaves, floods, and droughts are inflicting significant damage on both nature and the economy. For instance, the current floods in Brazil and wildfires in Canada demonstrate that natural disasters are being intensified by human activities and the use of fossil fuels. The cost of recovery from such disasters is continuously rising, placing additional pressure on government budgets.
Geo-economic confrontation poses another serious threat. The escalation of sanctions, tariffs, and restrictions on investment flows between countries is becoming the new norm. Tensions between the world's leading economies, such as the US and China, are affecting global supply chains and creating additional risks for businesses. Experts warn that such conflicts could trigger new economic crises.
Equally concerning today are disinformation and manipulation. Generative artificial intelligence has become a tool that facilitates the creation of fake content on a scale never seen before. From political campaigns to destabilizing society through social media, disinformation is becoming a powerful weapon. It not only influences elections but also deepens societal divides, fostering distrust in official sources of information.