The regulator's press service announced this in a Telegram post.
How will key economic events unfold in the country? Here’s the answer in five points.
- Inflation will rise and peak in the second quarter, then begin to decline from mid-year. By the end of 2025, it will slow to 8.4% year-on-year, and by the end of 2026, it will return to the NBU target of 5%. This will be supported by the NBU's monetary policy measures, the stability of the currency market, a new harvest, a narrowing fiscal deficit, and moderate external price pressures.
- The economy will continue to grow. Real GDP is expected to increase by 3.6% this year, and by about 4% per year over the next two years. This growth will be supported by a revival in investments (particularly in restoring energy and production capacities) and domestic demand, a soft fiscal policy, and increased production due to higher harvests.
At the same time, factors limiting GDP growth will include the consequences of the war, particularly disparities in the labor market and limited investments in productive capital.
- Employment and wages will continue to rise amidst a labor shortage and an economic revival. According to the State Statistics Service, in 2024, real wages exceeded pre-full-scale invasion levels in most sectors of the economy. They are expected to continue to grow, albeit at a slower pace.
The official unemployment rate will decrease to around 10-11% in 2025-2027, but will remain higher than before the full-scale invasion due to qualification and regional disparities in the labor market.