This was reported by the NBU press service.
- Price pressure will persist in the coming months; however, inflation is expected to start slowing down in spring 2025.
In recent months, inflation has been rising as anticipated, but at a pace slightly faster than predicted. In September, the inflation rate reached 8.6% year-on-year and continued to increase in October. According to the updated NBU forecast, inflation is expected to be 9.7% by the end of the year.
For more details on how inflation has changed throughout 2024 — read here.
Price pressure will continue in the upcoming months; however, by spring 2025, the rate of price growth is expected to decline. This will be supported by a balanced monetary policy from the NBU, a decrease in external price pressures, improvements in the energy sector, and higher harvests. By the end of 2025, inflation is projected to slow down to 6.9%, and in 2026, it is expected to return to the target of 5%.
- Economic growth is ongoing, though it remains constrained by the impact of the war.
Real GDP continued to grow in the second and third quarters, despite waves of attacks from Russia on energy infrastructure, a resurgence of migration, and a shortage of labor resources that hindered economic recovery. The NBU has slightly improved its forecast for real GDP growth in 2024 to 4%, thanks to a lower-than-expected electricity deficit and somewhat higher yields of early grain crops. According to the updated forecast, the economy is expected to continue growing by 4.3-4.6% in 2025-2026.