This is stated in the NBU Inflation Report for October.
The baseline scenario of the forecast assumes the continuation of significant budget deficits, with a gradual reduction over the projected period. However, there are considerable risks associated with increased needs for supporting the country's defense capabilities.
The National Bank of Ukraine has raised its budget deficit forecast for the current year to 23.3% of GDP (excluding grants), taking into account budget changes that foresee an increase in defense spending. The baseline scenario also considers the draft budget for 2025 and the corresponding amendments to tax legislation. High defense expenditures will be financed through additional measures to mobilize budget revenues and increase debt borrowings.
The main effect of these measures will be reflected in 2025, when the budget deficit is expected to decrease to 19.6% of GDP. In 2026, thanks to economic growth and expenditure optimization, the deficit will be reduced to 12.4% of GDP.