Russia is ramping up production of "Shaheds" for the winter campaign against Ukraine, according to ISW.

Russia is continuing to scale up the production of "Shahed" drones ahead of the winter campaign against Ukraine for the 2024-2025 period, despite sanctions and technical restrictions. This was reported by UNN citing a report from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).

Details

Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War, referencing Ukrainian intelligence in their report, state that a Russian factory in the special economic zone "Alabuga" in the Republic of Tatarstan produced 5,760 "Shahed" drones from January to September 2024. This is double the amount produced in 2023. According to leaked documents, the enterprise has already signed an agreement to manufacture 6,000 drones by September 2025.

It is also reported that Russia is actively developing low-tech decoy drones similar to "Shahed," which are used to overcome Ukraine's air defense systems. Plans are in place to manufacture up to 10,000 such decoys by the end of 2024, nearly double the number of strike drones.

The report notes that Russians have constructed two new workshops at the Alabuga factory and installed protective nets against drones above the buildings. To improve logistics, they have created a railway station with direct connections between Russia and China, through which essential components for drone production are supplied.

Analysts in their report indicate that Russia faces limitations in supplying its factories with quality components due to Western sanctions. Russians are forced to use low-quality engines manufactured in China. Meanwhile, Ukrainian forces, thanks to innovations in electronic warfare, are effectively countering "Shahed" strikes.

Key Findings:

- Russia continues to increase its domestic capacity for producing Iranian Shahed drones ahead of the planned winter strike campaign against Ukraine in 2024-2025. At the same time, the country still faces restrictions in the production and use of these drones, which are likely to remain relevant in 2025.

- North Korean forces are suffering significant losses, with the recent confirmation of the first captured North Korean soldier in the Kursk region.

- Ukrainian forces struck a Russian headquarters in temporarily occupied Zaporizhia region using the HIMARS system. Reports indicate that three Russian officers were killed. This preemptive strike occurred to hinder potential recovery of Russian offensive operations in western Zaporizhia region.

- The Russian Federal Air Transport Agency (Rosaviatsiya) blamed weather conditions and pilot actions for the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 in Aktau (Kazakhstan) on December 25. However, a source within Russian law enforcement connected to Rosaviatsiya claims that the agency attempted to cover up abuses by Russian air defense systems by releasing what is allegedly a transcript of conversations between the crew and the dispatcher in Grozny.

- Finnish authorities have detained the Russian oil tanker Eagle S due to suspicions of involvement in damaging underwater energy and telecommunications cables in the Baltic Sea. At the same time, it is noted that it is too early to assert that Russia is responsible for the damages.

- The government of Russia, led by Vladimir Putin, has appointed the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Sergey Shoigu, as the head of the newly established Scientific and Expert Council under the Security Council of the Russian Federation.

- Ukrainian forces have regained positions near Siversk, while Russian troops advanced in the areas of Toretsk, Bolshaya Novoselka, Pokrovsk, and Kurakhovo direction.

- Russian regions are increasing the size of bonuses for military service to stimulate enlistment in the armed forces.

Reminder

Experts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) indicate that Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected a proposal being developed by the team of newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump regarding a possible peace plan.